Wagner support, however, prompted increased Turkish involvement, ultimately breaking Khaftar’s siege of Tripoli and stalemating the conflict. Following previously practiced doctrine, Russia is closing bilateral arms deals to fill a power vacuum, and, through Khaftar and Wagner, Russia can access Al Khadim airfield in Northeastern Libya, Sirte airport, and bases and logistics networks in Central Libya. Already having established influence and cemented resource deals by playing Russian state and Wagner dynamics off of one another in Libya and CAR, Russia finds itself in a similar position with Mali and other Sahelian states. Like Libya, Russia has cultivated close ties with many elements in the Sudanese government over the past 20 years. Russia, or Wagner, encouraging the flow of immigrants from Libya would again provoke convulsions across the EU.

Source: The North Africa Journal November 23, 2020 15:00 UTC