Lockdown measures currently in place in England are likely to take the coronavirus R number below one but returning to the previous tiered system will cause infections to rise back to levels seen early in November, Government scientists have said. But they added a longer-term outlook will depend on both the nature of non-pharmaceutical interventions implemented after December 2, when the lockdown measures are expected to be lifted, and policies over the festive period. But as the number of coronavirus infections continued to rise, a four-week lockdown was introduced on November 5. If this remains the case, or if the outbreak returns to current levels after the lockdown, Sage has advised there is “little to no scope for loosening of social distancing rules over Christmas”. The experts said in a population immunity scenario, there “will be very limited room to relax interventions, since the absolute level of population immunity reached will likely still be low”.

Source: The Herald November 13, 2020 16:18 UTC