In other words, the RBNZ is likely to shift its forecast to suggest that the next move for the OCR is up. Most economists believe it will do that gently, by moving the odds towards a rate rise in December. “It will be interesting to see how governor Breman characterises the data during her debut against the NZ inflation dragon,” ASB economist Wesley Tanuvasa said. “The RBNZ Monetary Policy Committee will likely be wary of a meaningful further tightening of monetary conditions at this stage, as it would risk killing off the nascent recovery. There were also worrying signs of a rise in core inflation.

Source: New Zealand Herald February 15, 2026 19:02 UTC