Regime risk is constraining the CCPBy Simon H. Tang 湯先鈍International debate on Taiwan is obsessed with “invasion countdowns,” framing the cross-strait crisis as a matter of military timetables and political opportunity. Beijing is constrained not by a lack of capability, but by an acute fear of regime-threatening military failure. If Xi cannot trust his hand-picked military leadership, he cannot trust them with a high-stakes war where failure could trigger a blame cascade and threaten the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) survival. These tactics allow the CCP to impose cumulative costs on Taiwan while controlling the domestic narrative and avoiding the “all-or-nothing” gamble of a full-scale invasion. Third is crisis stability: bolstering communication channels to prevent miscalculations from spiraling into the war the CCP fears.

Source: Taipei Times February 02, 2026 16:06 UTC