Economists on average put the probability of the economy being in recession sometime in the next 12 months at 28% in the Journal’s last survey in April and at 18% in January. Since the Journal began asking the question in mid-2005, a 44% recession probability is seldom seen outside of an actual recession. In December 2007, the month that the 2007-to-2009 recession began, economists assigned a 38% probability. In February 2020, when the last recession began, they assigned a 26% probability. Forecasters have raised recession probability due to a number of factors: higher borrowing costs, a blistering pace of inflation, supply-chain problems and commodity-price shocks stemming from the war in Ukraine.

Source: Wall Street Journal June 19, 2022 22:10 UTC