On the one hand, the first Western sanctions need to be firm enough to show Putin that they’re serious—but not so firm that Putin thinks he has nothing to lose by moving ahead. In other words, there needs to be a credible threat of further, much more serious sanctions to discourage Putin from escalating. On Tuesday afternoon, Biden announced the first phase of sanctions and said more would come if Putin took further offensive actions. Putin may be expecting Xi to bail him out if the Western sanctions start hurting. Besides being five times the size with 10 times the population, Ukraine would give Putin’s army no such safe harbor.

Source: The Nation February 23, 2022 07:02 UTC