It’s unclear how the protests that have spread across Iran will develop and how they will affect the ruling regime and the oil sector. But the prospect of disruption to Iranian energy output presents a bigger threat to global supplies than Venezuela, particularly given the potential for instability to affect supply outside Iran itself. The geopolitical stakes are high too given Iran’s current status as one of the largest economies in China’s current sphere of influence. We will be discussing the economic implications of events in Iran – and much more – in an on-line Drop-in tomorrow at 3pm GMT (register here) and the commodity market implications on Wednesday, also at 3pm (here).

Source: The North Africa Journal January 12, 2026 13:32 UTC