Prolonged disruption scenario? In this potential adverse scenario, Philippine equities are projected to trend lower toward a bear case target of 5,500. A prolonged conflict, it was pointed out, raises the risks of reduced working hours or delayed wages, higher living costs in host countries, and possible repatriation or job displacement. Should these disruptions persist, the risk profile escalates to Scenario 3 — “Prolonged disruption; logistics issue to full-scale supply shock, where Brent oil prices could spike to $100 to $150/bbl. Scenario 3 outlines a prolonged disruption — from logistics issues to full-scale supply shock.

Source: Philippine Star March 22, 2026 17:35 UTC