Scientists have determined that the last major earthquake generated by this fault was in 1717 and of magnitude 8.1. Using a variety of methods, they have calculated the Alpine Fault wakes from its slumber roughly every 300 years, which means another big earthquake is about due. The researchers also found, somewhat alarmingly, there is an 82% chance the next Alpine Fault earthquake will be of magnitude 8 or higher. But when it lets it through, it can grow into a great earthquake of magnitude 8 and above. We should remember the findings have not actually made the Alpine Fault any more dangerous, or hazardous, than it already was.

Source: Otago Daily Times April 25, 2021 16:30 UTC