With more than half the season gone, we have enough stats to get a good idea of how well Premier League teams have been playing and therefore how things are likely to unfold in the months ahead. Expected goals tells us how well teams do the basics of football by creating lots of good chances up front and limiting their opponents to few, difficult ones at the back. With the figures based on how Premier League teams have performed in the past, history shows that the higher a team's xG difference - the more they dominate games - the more chance they have of success. So what do the stats tell us? If sides keep performing at around the level they have so far, then...

Source: BBC January 15, 2026 12:51 UTC