According to the people who put money on the line in the political prediction markets, Hillary Clinton clearly won the first debate. But prediction markets have a way of ferreting out people’s real beliefs, because they back those beliefs with their own money. I watched Monday evening’s debate in split-screen, tracking movements in political prediction markets as the two candidates went back and forth. Other prediction markets, such as PredictIt, showed an even larger move against Mr. Trump. Traders were already aware of the relative eloquence of both Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Trump before the debate.

Source: New York Times September 27, 2016 04:41 UTC