To be more upfront about my confidence or lack thereof in each guesstimate, I’ve added my totally subjective percent likelihood for each one. Deficit-financed tax cuts and spending added about a point to the 2018 growth rate. First, it’s a signal that, as expected, the tax cut didn’t lift the trend growth rate the way its advocates claimed it would. Instead, the 3 percent growth rate of 2018 was a sugar high from stimulating an economy already closing in on full employment. It took a while, but low unemployment is now reliably lifting nominal wage growth.

Source: Washington Post January 02, 2019 11:03 UTC