Thus any prognosis that emphatically suggests the trade war “will be” bad or good for any particular country or regional economy, or even for the world as a whole, should be regarded with a great deal of skepticism. The possible outcomes of the trade conflict lie along a continuum extending from “little to no discernible effect” to “utter catastrophe”. This trade war, like most “trade wars,” isn’t really about trade: Paul Gambles, who is the managing director of Bangkok-based MBMG Investment Advisory, pointed out in a recent newsletter that the trade war is occurring against the backdrop of some shaky economic conditions in the developed world, particularly the US. It would be more surprising than not if the trade dispute did not start winding down over the next few months. …But will pay a fairly stiff price for it in other ways: The trade war has provided a justification for some businesses to decouple themselves from China, according to a lengthy Bloomberg analysis from about two weeks ago.

Source: Manila Times October 01, 2018 17:10 UTC