Their representation within Earth System models (ESMs) is completely unconstrained because of a lack of any actual occurrences of these events in recent times. This approach reveals a hitherto-absent tipping point within this ESM that produces excellent agreement between the modeled and observed timing of abrupt change in North Africa. Under the influence of increasing greenhouse-gas radiative forcing, the potential for abrupt climate change is likely to increase in the future (4 ⇓–6). A prominent example of an abrupt climate change occurred in North Africa during the mid-Holocene. Future work may consider an explicit focus on transient climate changes and on model-emulation techniques.

Source: The North Africa Journal November 02, 2021 19:29 UTC