Beijing has increasingly turned to the gray zone because it concludes that this approach effectively piles pressure on Taiwan without triggering a strong response. The United States should therefore seek to eliminate China’s perception that gray zone coercion is cost-free. The United States should be prepared to respond to China’s gray zone coercion with asymmetry and creativity. Taiwan could seek to provoke more Chinese gray zone activities if it believed that such coercion would automatically trigger more U.S. security cooperation and support. Ignoring China’s gray zone campaign is itself destabilizing: it teaches Beijing that coercion works, reinforcing the very behavior that makes miscalculation and eventual conflict more likely.

Source: New York Times March 20, 2026 23:19 UTC