Despite the growth in Russian military capabilities over the past 15 years, the president’s faith in a “No First Use” policy rests on the presumption that the United States has sufficient conventional superiority that Vladimir Putin would never attempt to seize NATO territory. That presumption is flawed. It assumes that deterrence by conventional means alone can successfully forestall war (an assumption belied by centuries of European history) and that — despite two decades of U.S. disinvestment in armor, long-range weapons systems and short-range air defenses while Russia has advanced in electronic warfare and other conventional capabilities — NATO is not “outranged and outgunned” by the Russians. It also ignores geography: Russia’s superior forces along the European front line could quickly seize NATO territory before U.S. forces even arrived. Finally, and most important, it assumes that NATO governments and populations are prepared to accept victory achieved by a bloody conventional war on their territory.

Source: Washington Post November 05, 2021 08:26 UTC