Presidential, regional, and national elections are likely to see incumbent President Filipe Nyusi returned to office, while his ruling Mozambique Liberation Front (Frelimo) is expected to gain a majority in the national assembly. Some regional governors, however, may well fall to the opposition Mozambique National Resistance (Renamo). The problem is that the continuous allegations of rigging and fraud increase the political temperature, and violence is always a potential consequence. Frelimo and Mr Nyusi are expected to retain power, with a worst-case scenario for the president of a run-off. If the run-off is avoided, then whatever sporadic and limited conflict that may get sparked should die down.

Source: The North Africa Journal October 11, 2019 11:15 UTC