A European Union embargo of Russian oil is on the table, and the indications are that all 27 member countries may soon agree to a phased-in version. As a concrete example, assume the EU+ coalition sets the price cap at $10 per barrel of Russian oil, effective Wednesday, as it transitions to zero Russian imports. India should negotiate for a price that is lower than the world price and above the EU+ price cap. Still, since the supply of Russian oil is likely determined by politics as much as economics, Putin could decide to strategically cut off oil exports. But under the EU+ price cap, whether he decides to keep exporting or not, Putin’s war revenue would be diminished.

Source: Los Angeles Times May 09, 2022 18:15 UTC