Oil price spike threatens to cut Thai GDP growth, raise inflationA rise in global oil prices poses a growing risk to Thailand's economic outlook, with Tisco Financial Group warning that a 10% increase in crude from a baseline of US$72 per barrel could trim GDP growth by 0.3-0.4 percentage points, while lifting inflation by about 0.8%. However, escalating tensions in the Gulf region, now leading to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for more than 20% of global oil shipments, have emerged as a critical turning point, he noted. The surge in oil prices is also placing a heavy burden on Thailand's Oil Fuel Fund, which is currently subsidising diesel prices by around 20 baht per litre. The company emphasised that maintaining prudent risk management and close monitoring of global developments would be key to preserving financial stability amid an increasingly uncertain external environment. Under this strategy, Tisco aims to deliver consistent returns to shareholders while balancing risk management amid an increasingly complex economic environment and rising expectations for responsible finance.

Source: Bangkok Post March 24, 2026 01:53 UTC