"We need to be careful of its impact as it may be different from that of the canonical El Nino," the Japanese forecaster said. The model predicts that the positive IOD would persist in the autumn, and then quickly decay in the winter. In contrast, some parts of West US, northern parts of South America, Argentina, western parts of Australia, north-eastern parts of South Africa, Indonesia, Sri Lanka and the Philippines will experience a drier-than-normal condition. In the spring of the year 2020, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for eastern/western parts of the US, most parts of South America, and China. The model predicts that most parts of Japan will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in the winter as a seasonal average.

Source: The North Africa Journal October 18, 2019 04:30 UTC