The beauty of seasonal forecasting techniques is that it enables advance forecasts at least 3-6 months in advance. Compared to deterministic forecasts, this is the kind of limitation probabilistic forecasts have. For example, all previous La Niña years (1964, 1973, 1988, and 1998) recorded excessive basin-wide rainfall. Currently, as the season advances, a trend of further cooling has been projected and a weak-to-moderate La Niña is likely to continue in Oct-Nov-Dec. Therefore, in addition to short-term deterministic forecasts, medium-to-long term seasonal forecasts are essential in developing a real-time response plan for hazards management.

Source: Dhaka Tribune August 10, 2020 14:48 UTC