“If swift investments were made in Algeria and Libya was stabilised, we could count on 20-25bcm more in the medium term, about 4-5 years,” Gonzalo Escribano, director of energy at Spain's think tank Elcano Institute, told Montel.The 9bcm of additional Algerian supply secured by the Italian government was included in the incremental volumes, he added.“Without those [additional] investments, I don't see Algeria supplying all the 9bcm” it pledged, the analyst said. Yet he urged European and Spanish officials to consider the North African country’s role in contributing to the bloc’s energy transition and security of supply.“It is part of the solution to the Russia [crisis] – and so is Spain too,” he added.Russia accounted for around 40% of the EU’s gas supply last year. The bloc is looking to slash two thirds, or around 100bcm, of its imports from Russia by the end of the year.However, a diplomatic row between Madrid and Algiers could lead to "a couple of complicated years" in Spain-Algeria relations, the analyst said.Algeria suspended a friendship treaty signed with Madrid 20 years ago after the decision of the Spanish government to back Morocco's autonomy plan for the Western Sahara territory.This came after Algeria ceased sending gas via the 10bcm/year GME pipeline late last year amid mounting tensions between Algiers and Rabat. The conduit originally delivered Algerian gas to Spain via Morocco.The tensions probably won't affect contracted volumes, Escribano said but they could see Sonatrach – Algeria’s state-owned energy company – raise prices in its ongoing contract renegotiation.He remained concerned about "tension drivers", such as Algiers' warning against a potential reversal of flows through the Spain-Morocco GME gas pipeline. "Regaining trust will take time, and we have to start as soon as possible... Spain is an important client – Algeria is interested in remaining diversified and not depending only on Italy," he added.

Source: The North Africa Journal June 21, 2022 10:09 UTC