However, recent voter intention polls suggest that the race is tightening — and that the Conservatives could lose seats. Our forecasting model, based on voter expectations of who will win, predicts that the Conservative Party actually will increase its majority, winning about 361 of the 650 seats in Parliament. The citizen forecasting model has a higher chance of correctly predicting which party will win — and higher accuracy, on average, in estimating parties’ share of seats in Parliament. There’s a 77 percent chance that the Conservatives will win an outright majority of seats and an additional 20 percent chance that they will lead a hung Parliament. His research focuses on election forecasting, the voting behavior of immigrants and the selection of party leaders.

Source: Washington Post June 06, 2017 09:00 UTC