NZ First’s worst-case scenario for 2026 is that it will again hold the balance of power and Peters will again become Deputy Prime Minister. Since the mid-2010s, Labour’s and NZ First’s polling has tended to move inversely, suggesting they compete for the same voters. NZ First’s goal is to increase its vote at Labour’s expense to – at the very least – strengthen its hand with National and Act in a second Luxon Government. However, if history keeps flowing NZ First’s way, the party has a stretch target. Instead of a National-NZ First Government with Luxon as Prime Minister, why not, NZ First strategists ask, a NZ First-National Government with Peters as Prime Minister?

Source: New Zealand Herald January 01, 2026 17:31 UTC