I mentioned keeping an eye out for the delta between Likely Voter screens and Registered Voter ones. As we’ve noted a few times, this has become a consistent pattern in this presidential race: Joe Biden does substantially better in likely voter polls. It’s not like saying Trump does better in the NYT-Siena poll than he does in the ABC-Ipsos one, so I prefer the latter. And if they diverge you really want to be doing better with Likely Voters, as Biden is. If Biden wins all three northern states, he wins 270-268, assuming Trump wins one electoral vote in Maine and Biden wins the one in Nebraska.

Source: New York Times May 14, 2024 06:43 UTC