This is an interesting and defensible argument — basically, that the unclear shape of Brexit creates an option value to waiting. But everyone really should ask where the consensus about Brexit macro is coming from. On Thursday I weighed in on the short-term effects of Brexit, questioning the near-universal premise among economists that it will be a major negative shock to demand. I’ve received several thoughtful responses from economists I respect, all making a particular argument about the effects of Brexit-induced uncertainty. But I haven’t heard anyone arguing that the contractionary effect of Brexit will be followed by a compensating boom once things settle down.

Source: New York Times July 02, 2016 14:48 UTC