Monsoon is likely to arrive over Kerala on June 6, with an error margin of four days — that is, anytime between June 2 and June 10 (Shutterstock)The monsoon is likely to hit Kerala on June 6, about five days later than the normal onset date, the India Meteorological Department announced on Wednesday. It said a delayed onset has no bearing on the overall rainfall during a monsoon season. This statistical forecast has performed accurately to within one day during the past three years. The IMD had in its preliminary long-range forecast said the overall monsoon rainfall this year, from June through September, would be 96 per cent of the long-period average. The statistical forecast for the monsoon’s onset relies on six “predictors”, including the temperatures over northwest India, pre-monsoon rainfall patterns over the southern peninsula, and wind patterns in the southeast Indian Ocean.

Source: The Telegraph May 15, 2019 23:26 UTC