Biden and Trump are each doing worse than Trump was in early 2020, when he was often at or above 90 percent in primary polling. But it’s hard to see how Trump’s failure to match where he was four years ago is much more damaging to his candidacy than Biden’s failure to do so is to his. What’s more probable: that someone who prefers Haley to Trump politically will vote for Biden or that they’ll grumble and vote for Trump? [..]Just as these numbers don’t mean that Trump will necessarily lose in November, they also don’t mean he’ll win. One thing it seems safe to say, though, is that Trump sweeping Republican nominating contests to date is not a sign that he’s in significant trouble.

Source: Washington Post February 27, 2024 17:47 UTC