Mr Odinga’s problem is that his base is now more militant and intransigent than he himself ever was. Jubilee’s problem is that Mr Kenyatta and Mr William Ruto’s interests are now strategically misaligned: Mr Kenyatta wants a legacy, Mr Ruto wants the presidency in 2022. Unfortunately, the things that Mr Kenyatta can offer Mr Odinga in any future talks — a share in government and cabinet positions — won’t satisfy Mr Odinga or many of his supporters. Assuming that Nasa principals have not fallen out, further escalation can only help their battle of nerves with the government. Mr Kenyatta’s choice is stark: arrest Mr Odinga and Mr Musyoka for treason or impotently ignore them.

Source: Daily Nation January 30, 2018 19:07 UTC