Despite frequent oil field outages and now an open conflict between the UN-recognized government and the eastern-affiliated LNA, Libya’s oil production could double to 2 million bpd by 2023, IHS Markit analyst Fotios Katsoulas wrote in a recent report. Since then, the two factions have clashed over the oil ports several times. In addition, there have been pipeline blockades by disgruntled locals and other military factions, which have too led to field outages, the longest of which lasted three months earlier this year and affected a third of production, pumped at Libya’s largest field, Sharara. What it is concerned with, at least according to statements from the head of its National Oil Corporation, is the danger of a production outage. Granted, cash will only start flowing when investors are at least reasonably certain the pattern of outages changes, but the fact there are negotiations being held is reassuring for the future of Libya’s oil industry despite the still considerable risks.

Source: Libya Today June 23, 2019 15:00 UTC