Conventional wisdom suggests the Tories could bleed Remain votes to the Lib Dems. This allowed us to see that, for example, 2% of Conservative Leave voters polled intended to vote for UKIP in June. 31 of them voted Conservative in the last election, 37 for Labour, 13 for the Lib Dems and 2, oddly, for UKIP. A third of UKIP’s 2015 vote looks set to switch, followed by three of Labour’s 25 voters, and one from the Lib Dems. The Lib Dems don’t face the same problem in Richmond Park, which only turned back to the Lib Dems in December; but with a majority of less than 2,000 and a recent history of flipping, you wouldn’t bet the mortgage on a hold.

Source: The Guardian April 27, 2017 11:38 UTC