Probabilistic thinking is a key ingredient to seeing the world as it is because it makes it easier for people to recognizing when the future is unfolding differently than expected. For example, if people respond yes, we will be on time, then they will discount indications that we won't be on time. On the other hand, asking ‘how likely is it that we will be on time?’ invites people to response with a probability, such as 80%. This is because our people's frame of thinking views a small setback as a reduction of probability, say from 80% to 70% whereas a small setback would not be enough to trigger the shift from 'yes' to 'no.' It's better for us and our teams to see reality in a more detailed and accurate way.

Source: Forbes February 19, 2017 20:37 UTC