Thailand's economy is likely to see a gradual U-shaped recovery driven by government spending, with the ratio of public debt to GDP possibly edging towards the 60% ceiling rate, says Kasikorn Research Center (K-Research). The fiscal budget, which represents about 4.5% of GDP, will help support Thailand's recovery after the pandemic derailed economic momentum, said Nattaporn Triratanasirikul, assistant managing director of K-Research. "The U-shaped economic recovery is expected to begin in the first quarter next year and will take around two years for the economy to return to the pre-pandemic state," she said. A positive factor that would support economic recovery is vaccine development, which remains in progress, Ms Nattaporn said. Ms Thanyalak said commercial loan growth at banks is expected to increase to 9.5-12% this year from a 1.8% contraction last year.

Source: Bangkok Post August 28, 2020 23:37 UTC