Four opinion polls published on Saturday put the lead of Johnson’s Conservative Party over the main opposition Labour Party at between eight and 15 points, five days before the national election. At the lowest end of that range, Johnson cannot count on winning the majority in British Parliament he needs to take the UK out of the EU by Jan. 31, especially if voters choose to put aside their usual allegiances to vote tactically over Brexit. However, one poll, published before the 2017 election, by YouGov, was more accurate in predicting the number of seats won by each party. Known as an MRP poll — an acronym for its multilevel regression and post-stratification model — it predicted 93 percent of results in individual constituencies correctly. However, tactical voting by 41,000 voters in just 36 swing seats could prevent Johnson from getting a majority, it said.

Source: Taipei Times December 08, 2019 15:56 UTC