But if the race for president tightens, Trump's small gain with Black voters could make a difference. And, of course, Biden's margin with Black voters may tighten further if the margin with other voters also shifts. Historically, Trump is doing as well and probably even a touch better than Republicans normally do among Black voters. This confirms other studies that show that Biden's gains since the protests began have been concentrated among White voters . Moreover, White voters also make up a disproportionate share of the electorate in the swing states, especially in the Great Lake battleground states.

Source: CNN July 21, 2020 12:33 UTC