In many districts, gerrymandering means that the outcome of a primary doesn’t matter much. This is often cited as a reason for the increased polarization of Congress. At a state level, gerrymandering doesn’t play such a role, but it is the case that Ohio is now red enough that a midterm Senate race will probably favor a Republican in the general election. (Cook Political Report has the race as “lean Republican.”) This is not a guarantee, given that Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) won reelection fairly easily in the blue-wave election of 2018. But it is safer to bet on a Republican winning next year than a Democrat, reducing the damage that might be done by running hard to the right in the primary.

Source: Washington Post July 06, 2021 18:13 UTC