To minimize unforeseen consequences of policies emanating from political leadership, policy experts “game” the implications of policy shifts — an analytic exercise involving the imagining of low-probability scenarios that could potentially produce dangerous outcomes. In November, Putin signed a security agreement with President Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua — an old Soviet ally during the Cold War. A security pact with Mexico would give Putin considerable leverage over U.S. NATO policy. Putin could promise to match in Mexico any defensive missiles that NATO has in place in former Warsaw Pact countries. Nightmare Scenario #2: Testing NATO ResolveThe key to the NATO agreement is Article 5, the principle of collective defense.

Source: Washington Post February 22, 2017 11:04 UTC