In its pre-election opening of the Government books, Treasury’s main forecast is based on the assumption border restrictions will be gone by the start of 2022, but it also considered a much gloomier scenario. Altogether, Treasury produced three alternative scenarios alongside its main forecast, to take into account the extensive uncertainties of the Covid-19 pandemic. DAVID WHITE/STUFF Treasury’s main forecast assumes some border restrictions will ease from mid-2021, but it also considered a scenario in which the restrictions remain indefinitely. One of the alternatives – described as the “earlier recovery in services exports scenario” – is better than the main forecast, and could include the easing of travel restrictions between some countries. Professor David Murdoch of the University of Otago, Christchurch, who is a clinical microbiologist and infectious disease physician, said picking dates for the easing of border restrictions was all speculation.

Source: Stuff September 18, 2020 07:41 UTC