I think there are multiple factors in the grain prices - Energy, Ukraine, and of course weather. Ammonia manufacturing alone accounts for 2% of total world energy consumption, and Natural Gas is the usual source for the hydrogen required. A gambler might think now is a good time to lock in at least some of your 2023 Nitrogen needs. The market prices in the uncertainty about future supplies that the war creates. So enjoy your 4th of July celebration, and tomorrow start thinking about what could go right or wrong for 2023.

Source: Wall Street Journal July 04, 2022 14:24 UTC