Given the distortions in the reported CPI arising from the government shutdown, one shouldn’t overstress the month-on-month figures. Looking over the longer term, grocery prices rose 2.4% y/y through December 2025. In contrast, they rose only 1.7% y/y through December 2024. September 2025 was the last ERS forecast, given the government shutdown and lapse in data collection. Figure 2: CPI – coffee (blue, left log scale), and coffee price per pound in $ (tan, right log scale), both s.a.

Source: Daily Mail January 14, 2026 21:13 UTC