But cellphone activity data analyzed by Gupta, Simon and Wing show a different trend: People started to stay home well before states imposed shutdowns. Typically, economic data is measured in months, quarters and years. In shutdown areas, activity fell another 7 percent, meaning shutdowns caused less than an eighth of the drop in business. ADInstead, Goolsbee and Syverson found, economic activity returned about 5 percent faster in places that lifted their shutdowns compared with those areas not shut down. It was only the densest counties in states with Republican governors that saw slightly faster recoveries than those with Democratic governors.

Source: Washington Post January 25, 2021 11:02 UTC