CGS-CIMB Securities (Thailand) said that it had cut the country's GDP growth forecast for 2023 to 2.5%, from 3.2%, but maintained the 2024 estimate at 4% on the back of expected export growth of 3.7%. "In order to fulfil our GDP growth forecast of 3.2% in 2023, fourth-quarter GDP growth needs to exceed 5% year-on-year, which we view as unachievable," said investment strategist Gun Hathaisattha. Looking forward to next year, he said CGS-CIMB has not ruled out the possibility of the global economy falling into recession as "high interest rates last longer than previously expected". As a result, there is a chance that the global economy faces a more severe slowdown than the market expected, said Mr Gun. Maybank Securities expects Thai GDP growth to rise to 3.6% in 2024, from 2.3% this year, and CPI inflation to accelerate to 1.8%, from 1.3% this year.

Source: Bangkok Post December 06, 2023 06:59 UTC