“We expect the data to show that the economic recovery continued into the end of 2025, just with a little less vigour than in [the third quarter]. On a per-capita basis, GDP looked to have expanded 0.2% quarter on quarter, the second consecutive lift. “Growth in per-capita GDP is consistent with things starting to feel a bit easier at a household [and] business level,” Mundy said. “GDP is lagged data that is prone to revision and covers a period long before oil prices spiked,” he said. “At face value, a downside surprise to GDP would imply it is now wider than the RBNZ had assumed.

Source: New Zealand Herald March 15, 2026 17:31 UTC