Economists are forecasting little change in GDP in the final quarter of last year or the first quarter of this year. GDP figures due out this week may shed light on whether the country could already be in a technical recession. After two wild quarters in which GDP first fell 11 per cent and then bounced back 14 per cent, most estimates suggest it will be extremely close. Infometrics economist Brad Olsen said there was the potential for a technical recession but the numbers were likely to be quite “jumpy up and down this year”. It was quite possible the December quarter GDP number might be within a margin of error that could see its direction reversed when Stats NZ later published revisions, he said.

Source: Stuff March 15, 2021 02:51 UTC