Voters without a four-year college degree are far less likely to respond to telephone surveys — and far likelier to support Mr. Trump. That alone covers about half of the difference between the actual result and the final Monmouth poll, and it’s a reason to have more confidence in the new Monmouth poll. After all, Mrs. Clinton still would have led — albeit quite narrowly — in the final Monmouth poll of Pennsylvania, even weighted by education. Undecided voters could again break toward Mr. Trump, but this time there are simply fewer of them — and therefore less opportunity for the polls to be wrong for that reason. (Mr. Trump won the state by 0.7 of a point.)

Source: New York Times July 16, 2020 09:01 UTC