The reliable Essential Research has published its regular fortnightly poll, featuring federal voting intention numbers which, inclusive of a 5% undecided component (down one), have the Coalition up two points on the primary vote to draw level with an unchanged Labor on 32%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure is nonetheless steady at 52% for Labor and 42% for the Coalition, presumably reflecting better preference flow for Labor than last time (UPDATE: It seems the Essential Research chart display is misfiring – for me, at least – by not extending to the latest numbers, which actually have Labor down a point to 51% and the Coalition up two to 44%), with the vagaries of rounding pushing undecided up a point to 6%. The Greens are unchanged at 14%, while One Nation is up one to 8%, the upper limit of their range through the current term. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from double its usual sample size at 2248 respondents, presumably to add extra muscle to state breakdowns from a question on the Indigenous Voice, which is framed around the wording to be used in the referendum. This records the yes vote at 47% nationally with no at 43%, with state breakdowns showing yes well in the clear in Victoria (48% to 39%) and South Australia (49% to 38%), well behind in Queensland (42% to 50%), and statistically tied in New South Wales (45% to 44% in favour of yes) and Western Australia (49% to 47% in favour of yes).

Source: The Guardian July 11, 2023 19:01 UTC