The Tories have dropped 32 seats since then, Labour has gained three seats in this projection, while the Lib Dems are up 19, SNP up three and Plaid Cymru up two. Reform UK wins five seats under the new projection, having previously been on course to win zero according to YouGov. The projection vote shares implied by this MRP are Labour on 39%, the Tories on 22%, Reform on 15%, Lib Dems on 12% and Greens on 7%. The big winners are Reform, up from 10% to 15% and the Lib Dems, up from 11% to 12%. It suggests the Conservatives would be a party predominantly of the South East, South West and East of England.

Source: The Times June 18, 2024 21:24 UTC