Most private economists continue to expect Federal Reserve officials will raise short-term interest rates two more times this year, but are split over the path of rates in 2019, according to The Wall Street Journal’s monthly survey of forecasters. There is no clear consensus, however, over how many times officials will raise rates next year. Two others expect the Fed to start lowering short-term rates next year. If short-term yields rise above long-term yields, it would be a so-called inversion of the yield curve, a phenomenon that has often preceded recessions. Fed officials largely agree that short-term yields are rising because of their short-term rate increases and because the market is pricing in future additional rate increases.

Source: Wall Street Journal September 13, 2018 14:03 UTC