Following the recent downward revision, global growth is now expected to settle comfortably into a 3.6% growth trajectory over 2022-23, which is fractionally above the 3.4% average since 1980. Over those two years, global GDP growth averaged just 1.5%, well below the official global recession threshold, widely thought to be around 2.5%. Needless to say, if world economic growth slows more toward that underlying trend than the soft-landing glide path, another global recession is hardly farfetched. Third, the downshift in the global growth cycle is being accompanied by a major upswing in the global inflation and interest-rate cycles. All of this underscores the downside risks that are building in the global economy.

Source: Stuff April 26, 2022 10:08 UTC