Early in August, for example, the Daybreak poll found a notable decline in Trump supporters’ estimate of how likely they were to vote. In contrast with the Daybreak poll, other surveys have shown the race tightening recently, but not enough to erase Clinton’s lead. Analysis of the polling data makes clear where most of the difference between the Daybreak poll and other surveys comes from. And because the Daybreak poll includes more of those previous nonvoters than some other surveys, Trump performs better in its forecast. The Daybreak poll goes a step further and weights the sample to match how people voted in 2012.

Source: Los Angeles Times August 31, 2016 10:01 UTC